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How money changes value over time

A guide to inflation, interest, risk and checking who you are dealing with. Eight chapters, worked examples, no recommendations.

14 minute read

This guide was not written as a sample for customers. It was written as an answer to the questions we get asked over and over. It is here in full and free, because the best demonstration of teaching is teaching. Nothing in it is an offer and nothing in it recommends a product.

The amount stays the same, the value does not

A hundred thousand left in a drawer is still a hundred thousand in ten years. It just buys less.

A couple at a kitchen counter going through their paperwork on a laptop

It is the least dramatic thing that can happen to money, which is why almost nobody notices it. Nobody takes anything. The number on the statement does not move. What moves is what that number gets you.

The Czech National Bank targets two per cent inflation a year. When the target holds, a hundred thousand koruna sitting still loses about eighteen thousand of its purchasing power over ten years, leaving roughly CZK 82,000 in today's prices. It is not a catastrophe. It is the price of doing nothing, and it is charged automatically.

What is more interesting is what happens when the target does not hold. In 2022 the average annual inflation rate in Czechia reached 15.1 per cent according to the Czech Statistical Office. A single year like that takes more purchasing power than six years of two per cent.

What is left of the purchasing power of CZK 100,000 if you do nothing with it

Annual inflationAfter 5 yearsAfter 10 years
2% (the CNB target)CZK 90,573CZK 82,035
6%CZK 74,726CZK 55,839
15.1% (the 2022 rate)CZK 49,502CZK 24,505

The last row shows what would happen if such a rate ran for the whole period. It did not. It is here to show how quickly the numbers move.

None of this means you should rush anywhere. It means one thing only: doing nothing is not the neutral option. It is a choice as well, and it has an outcome as well. The rest of this guide is about what you can decide on deliberately.

What a bank does with the money you lend it

A deposit is not storage. It is a loan you make to the bank, which is why it pays interest.

Hands over a laptop and a notebook while working through documents

Most people picture their money sitting in the bank somewhere to one side, labelled with their name. Nothing of the sort happens. The moment you deposit money it stops being your property in the ordinary sense and becomes a claim: the bank owes you that amount and has promised to hand it over when you ask.

In the meantime it puts the money to work. It lends it on, mortgages, business finance, consumer credit, at a higher rate than it pays you. That difference is the bank's interest income and it is the main reason the bank exists.

Why a current account pays almost nothing and a savings account pays more

The difference is not generosity, it is predictability. You can empty a current account at any moment, so the bank cannot plan around that money. A savings account or a term deposit is more predictable, and the bank pays for that. The more firmly you commit, the higher the rate you are usually offered.

Where the rates come from

The starting point is the Czech National Bank's repo rate, the price at which commercial banks place money with the central bank. When the CNB raises it, money gets more expensive across the whole economy: lending rates rise and so does what banks offer on deposits. When it cuts, the reverse happens. So the rate on your savings account is not set by your bank alone. Your bank only decides how much of the move it passes on.

A bank deposit is a loan. Nobody calls it that, because the lender is you and that sounds unfamiliar.

What happens if the bank fails

Deposits at banks licensed in Czechia are covered by the Financial Market Guarantee System up to the equivalent of EUR 100,000 per client per bank. It covers deposits, not investments: money in current, savings and term accounts yes, mutual funds or bonds no. It is one of the few genuinely hard distinctions in finance and it is worth knowing before you look at any rate.

Interest that earns interest on itself

The gap between simple and compound interest is uninteresting for the first few years. Then it stops being.

Simple interest is always calculated on the original amount. Compound interest is calculated on the amount including the interest already credited, so interest starts earning further interest. It sounds like a technicality, and for the first few years it is one.

CZK 100,000 at a model rate of 3% a year

After yearsSimple interestCompound interestDifference
10CZK 130,000CZK 134,392CZK 4,392
20CZK 160,000CZK 180,611CZK 20,611
30CZK 190,000CZK 242,726CZK 52,726

Three per cent was chosen because it shows the arithmetic clearly. It is not a rate anyone is promising, and it is not the expected return of any product.

One rate, two curves

100 136 171 207 243 0 10 20 30 years
Compound interestSimple interestthousand CZK

Model rate of 3% a year, before fees and taxes. An illustration of the arithmetic, not a product return.

Look at the shape. After ten years the gap is CZK 4,392 and easy to miss. After thirty it is CZK 52,726, more than half the original deposit again, and nobody added any money to produce it. It came from nothing being taken out.

The rule of 72

An estimate that fits in your head: divide 72 by the annual rate in per cent and you get roughly the number of years in which the amount doubles. At three per cent that is 72 ÷ 3 = 24 years. The exact calculation gives 23.4 years, so the estimate is seven months out, which is close enough to orient yourself.

The same rule works in reverse, and there it is less pleasant. At six per cent inflation money loses half its purchasing power in twelve years. Compounding does not care which direction it is working in.

Why time weighs more than the amount

Two people, the same rate, very different effort, and almost the same result.

A student by a window taking notes beside a laptop

This example is worth going through slowly, because it runs against intuition. Both save CZK 2,000 a month and both have the balance grow at a model four per cent a year.

  • Anna saves for ten years and then stops. She pays in CZK 240,000 in total and does not touch the balance for the next twenty years.
  • Bohdan starts ten years later than Anna and saves for twenty years without a break. He pays in CZK 480,000 in total.

Bohdan paid in twice what Anna did. Thirty years after Anna's start, Anna has roughly CZK 654,500 and Bohdan roughly CZK 733,500. For double the money paid in, Bohdan ends up twelve per cent ahead.

Anna paid in half what Bohdan did and finished on eighty-nine per cent of his result. The difference was not made by money. It was made by ten years.

The point is not that saving later is pointless. Bohdan finished ahead of Anna and that was the right decision. The point is that time sits in the exponent of the calculation while the amount is only a multiplier. That is why starting small and early tends to beat waiting until you can start big.

Risk is not a dirty word

In finance, risk does not mean “something bad”. It means how wide the range of possible outcomes is.

In everyday speech risk is a threat. In finance it is a measure of spread: how far apart the outcomes that could happen lie. Low risk means a narrow spread, so the result will land near expectation, whatever that expectation is. High risk means a wide spread in both directions.

From which follows one sentence worth remembering: a higher expected return cannot be separated from a wider spread. This is not a moral rule or a cautious platitude. If an instrument existed with a high return and a narrow spread, everyone would buy it until its price removed the return.

Three words you will meet in the documents

  • Volatility: how much the value swings over time. On its own it says nothing about whether it is going up or down.
  • Drawdown: how far the value fell from its own peak. It answers the question of how uncomfortable the worst moment was.
  • Correlation: how far two things move together. When it is high, holding several of them does not help you.

That last point is the whole idea of diversification. Spreading money across five things that react to the same event in the same way is not spreading risk. It is the same bet written down five times.

“Guaranteed high return” is not a bold offer. It is a self-contradictory sentence.

Which is why “guaranteed” and “high” in the same sentence is worth treating as a signal. Either the return is not guaranteed, or it is not high, or the word guarantee is covering something other than what the reader pictures. Which of the three it is can only be established from the documents.

What exists in Czechia and how it differs

A factual overview. No recommendation, no ranking, no pick of the best.

Working through figures on a laptop at a desk

The list below describes what each instrument is and what separates them. It is not a ranking and none of it is a recommendation. Which of them makes sense for you depends on things we do not know about you and cannot know.

Four questions that separate most instruments

InstrumentDeposit insuranceWhen you reach the moneySupervised by
Current and savings accountYes, to EUR 100,000ImmediatelyCNB
Term depositYes, to EUR 100,000At maturityCNB
Building savingsYes, to EUR 100,000After the binding periodCNB
Pension savings, DIPNoUsually at retirement ageCNB
BondsNoAt maturity, earlier only by sellingCNB for public offers
Mutual funds and ETFsNoUsually within daysCNB

“Deposit insurance” means the Financial Market Guarantee System. An instrument not being covered does not make it bad. It means the risk is carried by someone other than the guarantee system.

The two things most often confused

First: saving and investing are not the same thing. With saving you know the rate in advance and deposit insurance covers the principal. With investing neither holds and the value moves with the market. The word “savings” nonetheless appears in the names of products that are investments. What decides is the contract, not the name.

Second: supervision is not a guarantee. When the Czech National Bank supervises an entity, it means that entity has rules to meet and reports to file. It does not mean the CNB stands behind the outcome, or that anyone approved the product as suitable for you.

An offer that does not add up: what to look for

Most problematic offers share the same few marks. They can be spotted before any money moves.

A couple at a table going through documents and making notes

This chapter is here because it is the most practical of them all. The point is not to suspect anyone. The point is to have a short list of questions you can take to any offer and work through in ten minutes.

1A guaranteed return well above market ratesIf it could be done without risk, banks would do it and rates would level out. Ask exactly who issues that guarantee and what backs it.
2Pressure to decide quicklyLimited places, a closing deadline, this price until tomorrow. A sound financial decision never stops making sense because you thought it over.
3It is unclear who the counterparty isLook the name up in the commercial register and in the Czech National Bank's lists of regulated and registered entities. Both are public and free.
4The money is to go to a private individual's accountOr to an account in a country other than where the entity is based, with no explanation. Under a legitimate contract it is clear who you are paying and why.
5The return depends on bringing in other peopleIf the reward grows with the number of participants introduced, the return is not coming from an investment. It is coming from recruitment.
6There is no written documentationA contract, an information document, a description of the fees. When the answer to a request for documents is an invitation to a meeting, that is itself the answer.
7A personal success story instead of figuresScreenshots of balances and stories are not verifiable data. Audited accounts and the identity of the entity are.

None of these points on its own means fraud, and plenty of honest offers happen to meet one of them. Three at once, though, means it is worth slowing down and having the documents read by somebody with no stake in the outcome.

What can be taught and what cannot

The honest boundary this whole project stands on.

Working at a computer in a home study

You can learn to read a product's documentation and find the fees in it. You can learn to tell saving from investing, to understand what each rate means, and to work out your own figures instead of accepting someone else's. You can learn to recognise an offer that does not add up, and to know where to check who you are dealing with.

You cannot learn to predict the market. Nobody can, and anyone claiming otherwise is claiming something that is easy to disprove. You cannot learn a way to have a high return without a wide spread, because no such way exists. And no course can decide for you how much risk you can carry. That is a question about your circumstances, not about finance.

Teaching changes what you understand. It does not change what the market does.

Which is why you will find no recommendation of any particular product on this site, no signals, no money management and no number designed to look like a promise. We offer courses and nothing else. If you leave this guide with nothing but the seven-point list from chapter seven and never enrol, it has done its job.

End of the guide

If all you take from it is the seven-point list in chapter seven, it has done its job. If you want to go further, write to us. We answer questions from people who never enrol, too.

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Trading Academy s.r.o.: Education only. Not investment advice and not a product offer. We manage no money and promise no return.